Social Science Today

Social Science Today

ISSN: 2368-7169 (Print)    ISSN: 2368-7177 (Online)

Volume 2 (2015), No. 1, Pages 1-8

DOI: 10.12735/sst.v2i1p01

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Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012

Jeong Hyun Kim1  Norman Schofield1 

1Washington University in St. Louis, USA

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Using a survey from a nationally representative sample in the U.S., this paper applies a spatial model of election to 2012 U.S. Presidential election. Studying 2012 Presidential election allows us to examine the role of activists in U.S. elections, since this election is the first presidential election after the historical Citizens United decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, which resulted in the removal of the limits on campaign contribution. By estimating a set of multinomial logit models, we find that ideological distance between candidate and voters still plays a significant role in determining vote choice in the U.S. elections. However, the valence of a candidate in the 2012 election turns out to be not a statically significant predictor of vote choice. The finding suggests that the exogenous increase in campaign contribution has emphasized the role of ideological distance in voting behavior, while reducing the effect of valence.

JEL Classifications: H11, C1

Keywords: stochastic electoral models, multinomial logit, valence, U.S. presidential elections

To Cite this Article: Kim, J. H., & Schofield, N. (2015). Spatial model of U.S. presidential election in 2012. Social Science Today, 2(1), 1-8.

Copyright © Jeong Hyun Kim & Norman Schofield

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This article is published under license to Science and Education Centre of North America. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012